Can electoral victory be achieved without a party? The role of individual factors in the success of independent candidates at the local level (Mexico, 2021)

Abstract

Independent candidates have been incorporated into the Mexican electoral system as an alternative to political parties, yet their electoral performance at the local level remains limited and uneven. While some candidates achieve competitive results, most receive only marginal support. This article analyzes the individual factors that account for these differences base don a study of the 2021 municipal elections in Mexico. The objective is to assess whether campaign spending, previous political experience, and the candidate’s gener influence the vote share obtained by independent contenders. Using an original database of 200 non-party aspirants, the study employs statistical techniques such as descriptive analysis, Pearson correlation, linear regression, and Student’s t-tests. The results show that campaign spending has a positive but moderate effect, that political experience is the most relevant factor in explaining electoral performance, and that women fase significant disadvantages compared to men. Overall, the findings suggest that the success of independent candidates depends on the interaction among economic resources, political capital, and gender inequalities within an institutional environment that continues to favor traditional parties. The study concludes that, without reforms to reduce these barriers, independent candidates Will struggle to consolidate themselves as a competitive and equitable option in Mexican local politics.